This study estimates the impact of the dramatic changes in housing prices during Japan's bubble from the late 1980s to the 1990s on households’ asset accumulation and utility over their life cycle. We construct a life-cycle model explaining households’ consumption/saving and housing decisions under collateral and borrowing constraints. We estimate this model using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), which includes data on households’ housing wealth estimated from objective information. Using the estimated model, we then conduct a counterfactual simulation in which we assume that housing prices remained constant during the bubble period. Doing so allows us to quantify the gains/losses of lifetime utility due to the housing price boom and bust. We find that 72.2% of the households experienced an average decrease in lifetime utility equivalent to 5.7% of lifetime income. On average, Japan's housing price boom and bust caused a loss in lifetime utility equivalent to 4.7% of lifetime income. Moreover, we compare the impact of the housing price bubble across cohorts and find that the impact was greatest for those who experienced the bubble at ages 35–45.

这项研究估计了从1980年代末到1990年代日本泡沫时期，房价的急剧变化对家庭整个生命周期内的资产积累和效用的影响。我们构建了一个生命周期模型，解释了在抵押和借贷约束下家庭的消费/储蓄和住房决策。我们使用来自家庭收支调查的数据来估算此模型（FIES），其中包括根据客观信息估算的家庭住房财富数据。然后，使用估计的模型进行反事实模拟，在该模拟中，我们假设房价在泡沫时期保持不变。这样做可以使我们量化由于住房价格的高涨和萧条而导致的终生效用的收益/损失。我们发现，72.2％的家庭的终身效用平均下降，相当于终身收入的5.7％。平均而言，日本的房地产价格暴涨和萧条造成了终身效用损失，相当于终身收入的4.7％。此外，我们比较了整个人群中房价泡沫的影响，发现该影响对那些在35-45岁经历过房价泡沫的人们影响最大。