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Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage
IMF Economic Review ( IF 2.489 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-01 , DOI: 10.1057/s41308-020-00130-4
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan , Xiaoxi Liu , Ilhyock Shim

We quantify the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on firm leverage. When home currency appreciates, firms who hold foreign currency debt and local currency assets observe higher net worth as appreciation lowers the value of their foreign currency debt. These firms can borrow more as a result and increase their leverage. When home currency depreciates, the reverse happens as firms have to de-lever with a negative shock to their balance sheets. Using firm-level data for leverage from 10 emerging market economies during the period from 2002 to 2015, we show that firms operating in countries whose non-financial sectors hold more of the debt in foreign currency, increase (decrease) their leverage relatively more after home currency appreciations (depreciations). Combining the leverage data with firm-level FX debt data for 4 emerging market countries, we further show that our results hold at the most granular level. Our quantitative results are asymmetric: the effects of depreciations, that are generally associated with sudden stops, are quantitatively larger than those of appreciations, which take place at a slower pace over time during capital inflow episodes. As our exercise compares depreciations and appreciations of similar size, these results are suggestive of financial frictions being more binding during depreciations than a possible relaxation of such frictions during appreciations.



中文翻译:

汇率波动与企业杠杆

我们量化汇率波动对公司杠杆的影响。当本币升值时,持有外币债务和本币资产的公司会观察到较高的净资产,因为升值会降低其外币债务的价值。这些公司因此可以借入更多资金并提高杠杆率。当本币贬值时,相反的情况发生,因为企业不得不在对其资产负债表产生负面冲击的情况下进行杠杆化。使用公司级数据获取2002年至2015年期间来自10个新兴市场经济体的杠杆率,我们显示,在非金融部门持有更多外币债务的国家/地区运营的公司,其杠杆率在增加(减少)之后相对增加本国货币升值(折旧)。将4个新兴市场国家的杠杆率数据与公司级外汇债务数据结合起来,我们进一步表明,我们的结果保持在最细微的层次上。我们的定量结果是不对称的:贬值的影响通常与突然的止损相关,在数量上要大于增值的影响,增值在资本流入期间会随着时间的推移而以较慢的速度发生。由于我们比较了类似规模的贬值和升值,因此这些结果表明,与可能在升值期间放松这种摩擦相比,在贬值期间金融摩擦具有更大的约束力。在资本流入期间,随着时间的流逝,这会以较慢的速度发生。由于我们比较了类似规模的贬值和升值,因此这些结果表明,与可能在升值期间放松这种摩擦相比,在贬值期间金融摩擦具有更大的约束力。在资本流入期间,随着时间的流逝,这会以较慢的速度发生。由于我们比较了类似规模的贬值和升值,因此这些结果表明,与可能在升值期间放松这种摩擦相比,在贬值期间金融摩擦具有更大的约束力。

更新日期:2021-03-14
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