Following years of fast‐rising debt levels, we show that the Covid‐19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short‐run, once‐off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov‐switching model. Following the impact of the Covid‐19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.

中文翻译：

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Covid‐19，《经济增长与南非财政政策》

经过数年快速上升的债务水平，我们证明了Covid-19危机加剧了南非本已恶化的财政状况。为了在危机后恢复财政可持续性，一些评论员认为，更高的政府支出将使GDP增长足以稳定债务/ GDP比率。我们拒绝这样做，这表明尽管支出的实际增加会刺激经济增长（短期的，一次性的效应），但公共支出/ GDP的比率超过了比率的增加对增长产生积极影响的水平。然后，我们通过使用马尔可夫转换模型估计财政反应函数，探索政府过去为维持或恢复财政可持续性所做的努力。在Covid-19危机对预算的影响之后，我们随后确定了赤字，政府为恢复财政可持续性而必须进行的支出和收入调整。最后，我们考虑引入债务上限的好处。