Our paper explores the prospects for the proposed East African Monetary Union (EAMU) by employing rigorous empirical tools to analyse business cycles synchronisation, structural cross‐correlations, spectral decomposition and regional clusters to identify different cyclical episodes, periodicities and characterise the economic cycles of East African countries. We find that cyclical movements reflect various idiosyncratic, common, historical and external shocks in the region. Secondly, all countries appear to be structurally correlated with each other except for South Sudan and Burundi. Our results also observe that the contemporaneous co‐movements of East African Community (EAC) cycles with those of Kenya and Tanzaniaare procyclical with coincidental path shift, while the same EAC cycles appear to be acyclical with those of Burundi. Additionally, from the spectral decomposition, Kenyan cycles take 10 years to complete, while those of Tanzania and Rwanda take 8 years. Ugandan and Burundian cycles take approximately 5 years, while the cyclical frequency for South Sudan corresponds to 3.3 years. Finally, the cluster characterisation of countries reveals that South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda form a group, while Kenya and Tanzania from a group distinct from the rest. We urge the member countries to prioritise policies on regional risk‐sharing and adjustment mechanisms, in addition to establishing credible institutional infrastructure that ensures surveillance and enforcement of convergence conditions adopted in EAMU protocol.

中文翻译：

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向东非货币联盟过渡的经济周期同步与对称性

本文通过使用严格的经验工具来分析商业周期同步，结构互相关，频谱分解和区域集群，以识别不同的周期性事件，周期性并表征东非的经济周期，从而探索了拟议中的东非货币联盟（EAMU）的前景。非洲国家。我们发现周期性运动反映了该地区的各种特质，共同，历史和外部冲击。其次，除南苏丹和布隆迪外，所有国家似乎在结构上都相互关联。我们的结果还观察到，东非共同体（EAC）周期与肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚同时发生的共同运动是顺周期的，同时发生了路径偏移，而相同的EAC周期似乎与布隆迪的发生了非周期性的运动。此外，从频谱分解来看，肯尼亚的周期需要10年才能完成，而坦桑尼亚和卢旺达的周期则需要8年。乌干达和布隆迪的周期大约需要5年，而南苏丹的周期频率是3.3年。最后，国家的集群特征表明，南苏丹，布隆迪和卢旺达组成一个集团，而肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚则与其他集团不同。我们敦促成员国在建立可靠的机构基础架构以确保对EAMU协议中采用的趋同条件进行监督和执行之外，优先考虑区域风险共享和调整机制的政策。乌干达和布隆迪的周期大约需要5年，而南苏丹的周期频率是3.3年。最后，国家的集群特征表明，南苏丹，布隆迪和卢旺达组成一个集团，而肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚则与其他集团不同。我们敦促成员国在建立可靠的机构基础架构以确保对EAMU协议中采用的趋同条件进行监督和执行之外，优先考虑区域风险共享和调整机制的政策。乌干达和布隆迪的周期大约需要5年，而南苏丹的周期频率是3.3年。最后，国家的集群特征表明，南苏丹，布隆迪和卢旺达组成一个集团，而肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚则与其他集团不同。我们敦促成员国在建立可靠的机构基础架构以确保对EAMU协议中采用的趋同条件进行监督和执行之外，优先考虑区域风险共享和调整机制的政策。