We compare outcomes of disability benefit applicants before and after a major Australian reform of disability benefits, with two groups of applicants who fulfilled the same medical impairment criteria accepted or rejected based only on application date. The reform reduced the generosity and increased the conditionality of welfare payments by shifting partially disabled claimants from disability benefits to unemployment benefits. This led to increases in the probability not only of switching out of unemployment benefits on to alternative benefits, but also of exiting welfare altogether. However, because those who exited had a higher probability of subsequently returning to welfare, the reform had no impact on the proportion receiving welfare 12 or 24 months later.

中文翻译：

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减少对残疾人福利的慷慨和增加条件：“转动超级油轮”还是“挤压气球”？*

我们比较了澳大利亚残疾福利重大改革前后残疾福利申请人的结果，两组申请人满足相同的医疗损伤标准，仅根据申请日期接受或拒绝。改革通过将部分残疾的申请人从残疾津贴转向失业津贴，减少了福利金的慷慨程度并增加了福利支付的条件。这不仅导致从失业救济金转为替代救济金的可能性增加，而且导致完全退出福利金的可能性增加。但是，由于退出的人后续回归福利的概率较高，因此改革对12个月或24个月后领取福利的比例没有影响。