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Shock Contagion, Asset Quality and Lending Behaviour: The Case of War in Eastern Ukraine
Kyklos ( IF 1.796 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-12 , DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12261
Tho Pham 1 , Oleksandr Talavera 2 , Andriy Tsapin 3, 4
Affiliation  

Focusing on the current geopolitical conflict in Eastern Ukraine, this paper examines the economic impact of military intervention on the banking sector and the contagion which is triggered by this type of negative shock. Our study reveals that banks which issued more loans within conflict areas during the pre-conflict period, were subsequently left with a higher level of non-performing loans in the non-conflict markets following the onset of the dispute. This impact can be seen most clearly in the regional markets which are closer geographically to the conflict zone. There is also evidence of the “flight to headquarters” effect in local lending. While banks tend to reduce their credit supply, it is within the regional markets located farther from head offices where the most significant reduction in lending can be observed. Further examination shows that the degree of lending reduction is lesser for politically connected banks and for larger banks. Finally, the negative economic effects of the conflict are long-lasting but less profound once the ceasefire agreements are reached.

中文翻译:

冲击蔓延、资产质量和借贷行为:乌克兰东部战争案例

本文着眼于乌克兰东部当前的地缘政治冲突,研究了军事干预对银行业的经济影响以及此类负面冲击引发的蔓延。我们的研究表明,在冲突前时期在冲突地区发放更多贷款的银行,随后在争端开始后在非冲突市场上留下了更高水平的不良贷款。这种影响在地理上更靠近冲突区的区域市场中可以最清楚地看到。也有证据表明地方贷款存在“逃往总部”效应。虽然银行倾向于减少信贷供应,但在离总部较远的区域市场内,可以观察到放贷减少最为显着。进一步研究表明,政治关联银行和大型银行的贷款减少程度较小。最后,一旦达成停火协议,冲突的负面经济影响将是持久的,但不那么深刻。
更新日期:2020-12-12
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