The Covid‐19 pandemic will have impacts that will vary across countries and commodity sectors, reflecting factors such as the importance of trade, differences in the functioning of supply chains and the market which producers and farmers supply. Some of these effects will be relatively short‐lived; others will be longer‐lasting. In this context, we set out the channels through which food prices will be affected by the Covid‐19 pandemic, emphasising the short‐ and longer‐term nature of the main effects. We focus on the UK but the insights extend to other (importing) countries. Drawing on a recent econometric model of UK retail food prices that accounts for both domestic and international factors, we show that the key drivers have potentially off‐setting effects, suggesting that the Covid‐19 shock to the food sector is likely to be different from previous shocks, particularly the commodity price crises of 2007–2008 and 2011. In many European countries, the Covid‐19 pandemic may manifest itself as something of an ‘odd crisis’, in which lower world and farm‐gate prices co‐exist with higher domestic retail prices. These off‐setting factors will frame policy responses targeted at different stages of the food chain across countries.

中文翻译：

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奇怪的危机：Covid‐19和英国食品价格

Covid-19大流行的影响将因国家和商品部门而异，反映出诸如贸易的重要性，供应链的功能差异以及生产者和农民提供的市场等因素。其中一些影响将相对短暂。其他将更持久。在此背景下，我们列出了食品价格将受Covid-19大流行影响的渠道，强调了主要影响的短期和长期性质。我们专注于英国，但见识延伸到其他（进口）国家。借助最近的英国零售食品价格计量经济学模型，该模型同时考虑了国内和国际因素，我们发现关键驱动因素具有潜在的抵消作用，这表明Covid-19对食品行业的冲击可能与之前的冲击有所不同，尤其是2007-2008年和2011年的大宗商品价格危机。在许多欧洲国家，Covid-19流感大流行可能表现为“奇怪的危机”，其中较低的世界价格和农产品价格与较高的国内零售价格并存。这些抵消因素将构成针对各国食物链不同阶段的政策对策。