Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish a grey cloud incidence clustering model to assess the drought disaster degree under 15 indexes in 18 cities of Henan province.

Design/methodology/approach

The grey incidence degree between each index and ideal index is used to determine the index weight and combined with the subjective weight, the comprehensive weight is given; the traditional possibility function is transformed into grey cloud possibility function by using the principle of maximum deviation and maximum entropy, which fully reflects the coexistence of multiple decision-making conclusions and constructs the grey cloud incidence clustering model.

Findings

The drought disaster degree of Henan province is divided into four grades under the selected 15 indexes. The drought grades show obvious regional differences. The risk levels of the east and southwest are higher, and the risk levels of the north and southeast are lower. This result is consistent with the study of drought disaster grades in Henan province, which shows the practicability and usefulness of the model.

Practical implications

It provides an effective method for the assessment of drought disaster grade and the basis for formulating disaster prevention and mitigation plan.

Originality/value

By studying the method of multiattribute and multistage decision-making with interval grey number information. The objective weight model of index value is designed, and the subjective weight is given by experts. On the basis of the two, the comprehensive weight of subjective and objective combination is proposed, which effectively weakens the randomness of subjective weight and reasonably reflects the practicality of index decision-making. The time weight reflects the dynamic of the index. The traditional possibility function is transformed into the grey cloud possibility function, which effectively takes advantage of the grey cloud model in dealing with the coexistence of fuzzy information, grey information and random information. Thus, the conflict between the decision-making results and the objective reality is effectively solved. The interval grey number can make full use of the effective information and improve the accuracy of the actual information.

中文翻译：

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基于灰云发生率聚类模型的干旱等级评估方法

目的

本文旨在建立灰云发生率聚类模型，评估河南省18个城市15个指标下的干旱灾害程度。

设计/方法/方法

以各指标与理想指标的灰色关联度确定指标权重，并结合主观权重给出综合权重；利用最大偏差和最大熵的原理将传统的可能性函数转化为灰云可能性函数，充分体现了多种决策结论的共存，构建了灰云关联聚类模型。

发现

选取的15个指标将河南省干旱灾害程度分为4个等级。干旱等级表现出明显的区域差异。东部和西南地区风险等级较高，北部和东南地区风险等级较低。该结果与河南省干旱灾害等级研究结果一致，表明了该模型的实用性和实用性。

实际影响

为干旱灾害等级评估提供了一种有效的方法，为制定防灾减灾计划提供了依据。

原创性/价值

通过研究基于区间灰数信息的多属性多阶段决策方法。设计指标值的客观权重模型，主观权重由专家给出。在两者的基础上，提出了主客观组合的综合权重，有效弱化了主观权重的随机性，合理体现了指标决策的实用性。时间权重反映了指数的动态。将传统的可能性函数转化为灰云可能性函数，有效地利用了灰云模型在处理模糊信息、灰色信息和随机信息共存的问题上。从而有效地解决了决策结果与客观现实之间的矛盾。