The development of the theory of dynamic inflation begins by linking wage inflation and unemployment. In further developments, factor of expectation is classified into inflation model. The study used inflation data is important for ASEAN, because ASEAN is one of the strengths of the international economy. This study analyzes the dynamics of inflation in the ASEAN using framework the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model. The data used is the quarterly panel data from 5 ASEAN members in the period 2005.QI–2018.QIV. The study of this dynamic inflation applies quarter to quarter inflation data, meaning that the inflation rate is the percentage change in the general price of the current quarter compared to last quarter general price divided by the last quarter. The empirical results are estimated by using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), both of the system and first different indicates that the pattern formation of inflation expectations are backward-looking and forward-looking. In addition, the estimated NKPC models show the backward-looking behavior is more dominant than the forward looking. Changes in inflation are not entirely influenced by expectations of inflation in each country. Changes in inflation are also influenced by the output gap, changes in money supply, and exchange rate. Based on the findings of this study, it can be concluded that the NKPC models can explain the dynamics of inflation in each country in the ASEAN region.

中文翻译：

---

东盟的通货膨胀和凯恩斯新菲利普斯曲线

动态通货膨胀理论的发展始于将工资通货膨胀与失业联系起来。在进一步的发展中，期望因素被分类为通货膨胀模型。该研究使用的通胀数据对东盟很重要，因为东盟是国际经济的强项之一。本研究使用新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线（NKPC）模型框架分析了东盟的通货膨胀动态。使用的数据是2005.QI–2018.QIV期间来自5个东盟成员国的季度面板数据。此动态通货膨胀的研究应用了季度到季度的通货膨胀数据，这意味着通货膨胀率是当前季度的总价格与上一季度的总价格除以上一季度所得的百分比变化。通过使用广义矩量（GMM）估算经验结果，这两个系统和第一个不同点都表明通货膨胀预期的模式形成是前瞻性和前瞻性的。此外，估计的NKPC模型显示，后向行为比前向行为更占主导地位。通货膨胀的变化并不完全受每个国家对通货膨胀预期的影响。通货膨胀的变化还受到产出缺口，货币供应量变化和汇率的影响。根据这项研究的结果，可以得出结论，NKPC模型可以解释东盟地区每个国家的通货膨胀动态。估计的NKPC模型显示，后向行为比前向行为更为主导。通货膨胀的变化并不完全受每个国家对通货膨胀预期的影响。通货膨胀的变化还受到产出缺口，货币供应量变化和汇率的影响。根据这项研究的结果，可以得出结论，NKPC模型可以解释东盟地区每个国家的通货膨胀动态。估计的NKPC模型显示，后向行为比前向行为更为主导。通货膨胀的变化并不完全受每个国家对通货膨胀预期的影响。通货膨胀的变化还受到产出缺口，货币供应量变化和汇率的影响。根据这项研究的结果，可以得出结论，NKPC模型可以解释东盟地区每个国家的通货膨胀动态。