With Australia's significant existing household PV capacity, decreasing battery costs may lead to widespread household PV-battery adoption. As the sizing of these systems are heavily influenced by retail tariffs, this paper analyses the effect of flat retail tariffs on households free to invest in PV battery systems. Using Perth, Australia for context, an open-source model is used to simulate household PV battery investments over a 20-year period. We find that flat usage and feed-in tariffs lead to distinct residual demand patterns as households' transition from PV-only to PV-battery systems. Qualitatively analysing these patterns from the bottom-up, we identify transitional tipping points that may challenge future electricity system management, market participation and energy policies. The continued use of flat tariffs incentivises PV-battery households to maximise self-consumption, which reduces annual grid-imports, increases annual grid-exports, and shifts residual demand towards winter. Diurnal and seasonal demand patterns continue to change as PV-battery households eventually become net-generators. Unmanaged, these bottom-up changes may complicate energy decarbonisation efforts within centralised electricity markets and suggest that policymakers should prepare for PV-battery households to play a more active role in the energy system.

由于澳大利亚现有的家用光伏电池容量巨大，因此降低电池成本可能会导致广泛采用家用光伏电池。由于这些系统的规模在很大程度上受到零售电价的影响，因此本文分析了统一零售电价对免费投资光伏电池系统的家庭的影响。以澳大利亚的珀斯为背景，使用开源模型来模拟20年内家用光伏电池的投资。我们发现，随着家庭从纯光伏系统向光伏电池系统的转变，固定使用和上网电价会导致截然不同的剩余需求模式。从下到上定性分析这些模式，我们确定了可能对未来电力系统管理，市场参与和能源政策构成挑战的过渡临界点。持续使用固定关税使光伏电池家庭最大化自消费，从而减少了年度电网进口，增加了年度电网出口，并将剩余需求转向了冬季。随着光伏电池家庭最终成为净发电者，昼夜和季节性需求模式将继续发生变化。这些自下而上的变化得不到控制，可能会使集中式电力市场中的能源脱碳工作复杂化，并建议政策制定者应为光伏电池家庭做好准备，使其在能源系统中发挥更加积极的作用。