ABSTRACT

What does ‘dollarisation’ mean in a world of endogenous money, i.e., in a world where money is not (only) created by printing pieces of paper, but (mainly) by making loans? Is it true that dollarisation only constitutes a limitation of sovereignty in the short run (making it harder to run standard stabilisation macro policies) or can it also slow a country’s growth process? To answer these questions, the paper builds a theoretical Keynesian-Kaleckian growth model for a dollarised economy within a framework of endogenous money. We will show that, ceteris paribus, the steady-state medium-term growth rate of a dollarised economy is lower than that of a country with its own currency. We will also show that a dollarised economy is more likely to be unstable than an economy with its own currency, in the specific sense that, everything else being equal, it is more likely for a dollarised economy to fall into a debt trap.

摘要

“美元化”在一个内生货币的世界里是什么意思，即在一个货币不是（仅）通过印刷纸张创造，而是（主要）通过贷款创造的世界？美元化只是在短期内构成对主权的限制（使标准的稳定宏观政策更难运行），还是它也会减缓一个国家的增长进程，这是真的吗？为了回答这些问题，本文为内生货币框架内的美元化经济构建了一个理论凯恩斯-卡莱克增长模型。我们将证明，在其他条件不变的情况下，美元化经济的稳态中期增长率低于拥有本国货币的国家。我们还将表明，美元化的经济体比使用本国货币的经济体更不稳定，具体而言，在其他条件相同的情况下，美元化的经济体更有可能陷入债务陷阱。