ABSTRACT

In response to the economic crisis unleashed by the Covid-19 pandemic, the EU authorities have launched extraordinary fiscal and monetary measures in support of member states. The impact of these measures is of great significance for Italy, the EU third-largest economy, which as a result of the pandemic has suffered a dramatic decline in GDP, and a further rise in the government debt to GDP ratio. Building on a stock-flow consistent, structural macro-econometric model, this paper shows that the currently planned EU measures are insufficient to boost the recovery of the Italian economy, and to ensure the sustainability of its government debt. The paper also assesses two potential alternative policies. A fiscal consolidation (i.e. austerity) policy would exacerbate the decline in GDP and further deteriorate the government debt to GDP ratio. By contrast, a money-financed fiscal stimulus policy could lead the Italian economy on a path of sustainable growth, with positive outcomes for employment and government finances.

摘要

为应对 Covid-19 大流行引发的经济危机，欧盟当局推出了非常规财政和货币措施以支持成员国。这些措施的影响对欧盟第三大经济体意大利意义重大，意大利受疫情影响GDP大幅下滑，政府债务占GDP比重进一步上升。基于存量流动一致的结构性宏观经济计量模型，本文表明欧盟目前计划的措施不足以促进意大利经济的复苏，并确保其政府债务的可持续性。本文还评估了两种潜在的替代政策。财政整顿（即紧缩）政策将加剧 GDP 的下降，并进一步恶化政府债务与 GDP 的比率。