ABSTRACT

As the number of rapes is increasing in Sweden, and the number of individuals convicted of these crimes is decreasing, it is of importance to study offender characteristics of those committing these crimes and the circumstances in which these crimes are conducted, such as indoors or outdoors. Data from Swedish population-based registers were used to identify individuals suspected of rape, aggravated rape, attempted rape or attempted aggravated rape (in short: rape+) against females ≥18 years old between 2007–2017. Latent Class Analysis was then used to identify classes of rape+ suspects with respect to the location of the rape+ and then compare the two groups. A total of 19,723 individuals were included of which the majority (n = 17,520; 88.8%) were suspected of indoor rape+. In both groups, we identified a low offenders’ class and a high offenders’ class. In addition, first-generation immigrants had a higher odds of being suspected of outdoor rape+ than Swedish-born suspects, and a previous conviction of violent crime was a risk factor for committing outdoor rape+.

摘要

随着瑞典的强奸案数量不断增加，而被判犯有这些罪行的人数正在减少，研究犯下这些罪行的人的犯罪者特征以及进行这些罪行的环境（例如室内或室外）非常重要. 瑞典基于人口的登记数据用于识别 2007 年至 2017 年间对 18 岁以上女性涉嫌强奸、严重强奸、强奸未遂或严重强奸未遂（简称：强奸+）的个人。然后使用潜在类别分析来识别强奸+犯罪嫌疑人的类别，然后再比较两组。共纳入 19,723 人，其中大多数（n = 17,520；88.8%）涉嫌室内强奸+。在两组中，我们确定了低犯罪者等级和高犯罪者等级。此外，与瑞典出生的嫌疑人相比，第一代移民被怀疑户外强奸+的几率更高，而先前对暴力犯罪的定罪是户外强奸+的风险因素。