In this paper we adopt a growth accounting projection model to estimate and characterize health‐financing needs in Brazil as well as to assess the extent to which financing needs may diverge from spending capacity in the future. We estimate an annual increase of 0.71% in the share of projected financing needs relative to GDP, with excess growth rates being 0.74% and 0.69% for the public and private health sectors, respectively. Institutional reforms and public spending restrictions may leverage public–private segmentation in health financing throughout the next decades, thus potentially leading to losses of equity in the system. Our projections contribute to a scant empirical literature on health financing sustainability in low‐ and middle‐income countries and shed light on the role of spending capacity and institutional constraints over the path towards universal health coverage.

中文翻译：

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巴西的融资需求、支出预测和健康的未来

在本文中，我们采用增长会计预测模型来估计和描述巴西的卫生融资需求，并评估未来融资需求可能偏离支出能力的程度。我们估计预计融资需求相对于 GDP 的份额每年增长 0.71%，公共和私营卫生部门的超额增长率分别为 0.74% 和 0.69%。制度改革和公共支出限制可能会在未来几十年利用公共-私营部门的卫生筹资分割，从而可能导致系统中的公平性损失。