In this paper, we investigate the economic consequences of pandemics from an idea-based theory of economic growth. We assume that pandemics pose a threat to research productivity and analyse the long-term consequences of pandemic shocks to innovation output. We demonstrate that following a pandemic, innovation output is disrupted for approximately seven years. The effect of pandemic shocks on innovation output varies between countries, and sector to sector regarding economic activity. Pandemic shocks lead to a short-term drop in the number of patent applications. Crucially, the duration of a pandemic has a strong effect on innovation output. Overall, the effects of this most recent pandemic on future innovation output, and subsequently on growth, are expected to be felt long into the future. This paper supports the policies designed to reduce the effect of the “Great Lockdown” on research productivity. Policies that target the more innovative firms are moving in the right direction in terms of reducing the time it will take for innovation to recover from the effects of COVID19.

在本文中，我们从基于思想的经济增长理论中研究了流行病的经济后果。我们假设大流行病对研究生产率构成威胁，并分析了大流行性冲击对创新产出的长期影响。我们证明，大流行之后，创新产出中断了大约7年。大流行冲击对创新产出的影响因国家而异，在经济活动方面因部门而异。大流行的冲击导致专利申请数量短期下降。至关重要的是，大流行的持续时间对创新产出有很大影响。总体而言，预计在不久的将来很可能会感觉到这一最新流行病对未来创新产出以及随后对增长的影响。本文支持旨在减少“大锁定”对研究生产率的影响的政策。针对减少创新的公司的政策正朝着正确的方向发展，以减少创新从COVID19的影响中恢复所需的时间。