Land use land cover (LULC) and climate are the determinant factors for the soil water balance. The combined effect of LULC and climate change is of great importance for effective water resources planning and management. This study assessed the hydrological impact of long-term implementation of integrated crop-livestock (ICL) system with the projected climate scenarios on water yield using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model over two time periods (i.e., near future [2021–2050] and far future [2070–2099]). This study was conducted in three phases over Skunk Creek watershed (SCW), South Dakota. In phase I, the impact of long-term ICL system implementation (1976–2005; 30 years) on soil hydrology was evaluated. Phase II and phase III evaluated the impacts of projected climate changes under existing land cover and ICL system, respectively. Outcomes of phase I showed a significant decrease in water yield and surface runoff. Phase II showed the susceptibility of SCW to extreme events such as floods and waterlogging during spring, and droughts during summers under the projected climate changes. Phase III showed the reduction in water yield and surface runoff due to the ICL system and minimizing the induced detrimental impacts only due to climate change. This study provides a perspective on the possible impacts of the ICL system to mitigate the hydrological alteration due to climate change.

中文翻译：

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模拟农业流域未来气候变化下农畜综合系统的水文响应

土地利用土地覆盖（LULC）和气候是土壤水分平衡的决定因素。LULC 和气候变化的综合效应对于有效的水资源规划和管理非常重要。本研究使用土壤和水评估工具模型在两个时间段（即不久的将来 [2021-2050]）评估了长期实施综合作物 - 畜牧 (ICL) 系统的水文影响和预测的气候情景对水产量的影响和遥远的未来 [2070-2099]）。这项研究在南达科他州臭鼬溪流域 (SCW) 上分三个阶段进行。在第一阶段，评估了长期 ICL 系统实施（1976-2005；30 年）对土壤水文的影响。第二阶段和第三阶段分别评估了现有土地覆盖和 ICL 系统下预计气候变化的影响。第一阶段的结果显示出水量和地表径流显着减少。第二阶段表明，在预测的气候变化下，SCW 易受极端事件的影响，例如春季洪水和内涝，夏季干旱。第三阶段表明，由于 ICL 系统，产水量和地表径流减少，并最大限度地减少了仅由气候变化引起的不利影响。本研究为 ICL 系统减轻气候变化引起的水文变化的可能影响提供了一个视角。第三阶段表明，由于 ICL 系统，产水量和地表径流减少，并最大限度地减少了仅由气候变化引起的不利影响。本研究为 ICL 系统减轻气候变化引起的水文变化的可能影响提供了一个视角。第三阶段表明，由于 ICL 系统，产水量和地表径流减少，并最大限度地减少了仅由气候变化引起的不利影响。本研究为 ICL 系统减轻气候变化引起的水文变化的可能影响提供了一个视角。