High energy and material demand in the building sector causes large greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This sector needs large-scale technological improvements in the transition to a future low-emission society. Extensive research is carried out on highly energy-efficient and zero emission buildings (ZEB), but the new technologies slowly penetrate the market. Until now, no bottom-up studies have applied a dynamic building stock energy model at the national level to quantify effects of a large-scale ZEB introduction. Using the RE-BUILDS 2.0 model, we explore and extensively discuss the aggregated potential for energy and GHG emission savings in the Norwegian building stock towards 2050. A Baseline scenario is compared with two ZEB scenarios assuming introduction of the ZEB definition and ZEB technologies applied in the future new built and renovated buildings, with an increased ambition level over time. The results reveal a large potential for energy and GHG emission savings of ZEB deployment towards 2050. Hence, stricter future regulations and practice will have important aggregated effects. Due to the long lifetime of buildings and potential lock-in effects, it is urgent that ZEB policies are implemented if the climate change mitigation potential of the Norwegian building stock is going to be reached.

建筑部门对能源和材料的高需求导致大量温室气体（GHG）排放。在向未来的低排放社会过渡的过程中，该部门需要大规模的技术改进。在高能效和零排放建筑物（ZEB）上进行了广泛的研究，但是新技术正在慢慢渗透到市场中。到目前为止，尚无自下而上的研究在国家一级应用动态建筑能耗模型来量化大规模引进ZEB的效果。使用RE-BUILDS 2.0模型，我们探索并广泛讨论了到2050年挪威建筑存量在节能和温室气体排放方面的总节约潜力。将基准情景与两个ZEB情景进行比较，假设引入ZEB定义和ZEB技术应用于将来的新建和翻新建筑物中，并且随着时间的推移会增加雄心。结果表明，到2050年部署ZEB的能源和温室气体减排潜力很大。因此，更严格的未来法规和实践将产生重要的综合影响。由于建筑物的使用寿命长且可能存在锁定效应，因此，如果要达到减轻挪威建筑群的气候变化潜力，则迫切需要实施ZEB政策。未来更严格的法规和实践将产生重要的综合影响。由于建筑物的使用寿命长且可能存在锁定效应，因此，如果要达到减轻挪威建筑群的气候变化潜力，则迫切需要实施ZEB政策。未来更严格的法规和实践将产生重要的综合影响。由于建筑物的使用寿命长且可能存在锁定效应，因此，如果要达到减轻挪威建筑群的气候变化潜力，则迫切需要实施ZEB政策。