Permafrost is one of the key components of terrestrial ecosystem in cold regions. In the context of climate change, few studies have investigated resilience of social ecological system (SER) from the perspective of permafrost that restricts the hydrothermal condition of alpine grassland ecosystem. In this paper, based on the structural dynamics, we developed the numerical model for the SER in the permafrost regions of the source of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics and sensitivity of the SER, and estimated the effect of permafrost change on the SER. The results indicate that: 1) the SER has an increasing trend, especially after 1997, which is the joint effect of precipitation, temperature, NPP and ecological conservation projects; 2) the SER shows the spatial feature of high in southeast and low in northwest, which is consistent with the variation trends of high southeast and low northwest for the precipitation, temperature and NPP, and low southeast and high northwest for the altitude; 3) the high sensitive regions of SER to the permafrost change have gradually transited from the island distribution to zonal and planar distribution since 1980, moreover, the sensitive degree has gradually reduced; relatively, the sensitivity has high value in the north and south, and low value in the south and east; 4) the thickness of permafrost active layer shows a highly negative correlation with the SER. The contribution rate of permafrost change to the SER is -4.3%, that is, once the thickness of permafrost active layer increases 1 unit, the SER would decrease 0.04 units.

中文翻译：

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长江和黄河源区多年冻土在社会生态系统韧性中的作用及其时空动态

多年冻土是寒冷地区陆地生态系统的关键组成部分之一。在气候变化的背景下，很少有研究从永冻土的角度研究社会生态系统的复原力，而永冻土限制了高山草原生态系统的热液条件。本文基于结构动力学，建立了长江黄河源区多年冻土区域SER的数值模型，分析了SER的时空特征和敏感性，并估算了多年冻土变化的影响。在SER上。结果表明：1）SER的增加趋势，尤其是1997年以后，是降水，温度，NPP和生态保护工程的共同作用； 2。2）SER显示出东南高，西北低的空间特征，与东南高，西北低的降水，温度和NPP的变化趋势一致，与东南低，西北高的海拔的变化趋势一致；3）自1980年以来，SER对多年冻土变化的高敏感区域已逐渐从岛状分布转变为纬向和平面分布，敏感度逐渐降低; 相对而言，灵敏度在北部和南部具有较高的价值，而在南部和东部具有较低的价值；4）永久冻土活性层的厚度与SER呈高度负相关。永久冻土变化对SER的贡献率为-4.3％，也就是说，一旦永久冻土活性层的厚度增加1个单位，SER将减少0.04个单位。