In this article, we study the effect of the Pole Position in Formula 1 history on the outcome of the race. Using data for every race between 1950 and 2013, we use two approaches to quantify the effect of being on Pole. First, we estimate the effect on the probability of winning the race using a logit model. Second, we estimate a Poisson model to express the effect in terms of finishing positions. We find that the Pole sitter does have a significant advantage over the other drivers on the grid: two positions at the finish line or about a 10 percentage point higher probability of winning the race. These estimates capture the effect controlling for various confounding factors and a rich set of fixed effects, including driver ability, track characteristics and constructor performance. We also document that the effect varies over seasons.

中文翻译：

---

一级方程式赛车历史中杆位的价值

在本文中，我们研究了一级方程式赛车历史中杆位对比赛结果的影响。使用1950年至2013年之间每场比赛的数据，我们使用两种方法来量化存在对极点的影响。首先，我们使用对数模型估算对赢得比赛的可能性的影响。其次，我们估计一个泊松模型来表达对终点位置的影响。我们发现，极位选手确实比其他车手有明显的优势：终点线上的两个位置，或赢得比赛的几率高出约10个百分点。这些估计值捕获了控制各种混杂因素的效果以及一组丰富的固定效果，包括驾驶员能力，赛道特征和构造器性能。我们还记录了效果随季节而变化。