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Modelling Climate-Change Impact on the Spatial Distribution of Garra Rufa (Heckel, 1843) (Teleostei: Cyprinidae)
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions A: Science ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-08 , DOI: 10.1007/s40995-021-01088-2
Toktam Makki , Hossein Mostafavi , Aliakbar Matkan , Hossein Aghighi

Climate change has been recognized as one of the biggest threats to biodiversity conservation. Therefore, predicting and quantifying the impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be useful for its conservation and management. In this regard, we forecasted climate-change effects on one of the common fish species in catches in south-western Iran, i.e. Garra rufa by using species distribution modelling tools. Seven environmental variables (i.e. basin, stream slope, bank-full width, elevation, mean air temperature, air temperature range, and annual precipitation) were used for modelling by BioMOD2 package in R software. Moreover, six modelling techniques (i.e. GLM, GAM, GBM, MARS, ANN, and RF) were applied and finally summarized by the ensemble model in order to reduce the uncertainty. According to true skill statistic, the average accuracy of the modelling was excellent (0.91). This species showed both expansion (gain) and reduction (loss) under different climate-change scenarios [optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)] in 2050 and 2080. Consequently, in order to protect this species, it is necessary for managers to implement appropriate measures for conservation of future predicted potential suitable areas as well as areas where this species is likely disappeared.



中文翻译:

模拟气候变化对Garra Rufa空间分布的影响(Heckel,1843年)(Teleostei:Cyprinidae)

气候变化已被认为是对生物多样性保护的最大威胁之一。因此,预测和量化气候变化对生物多样性的影响可能有助于其保护和管理。在这方面,我们预测了气候变化对伊朗西南部渔获物中一种常见鱼类的影响,即Garra rufa通过使用物种分布建模工具。通过R软件中的BioMOD2软件包,使用了七个环境变量(即流域,溪流坡度,河岸全宽,高程,平均气温,气温范围和年降水量)进行建模。此外,为了降低不确定性,应用了六种建模技术(即GLM,GAM,GBM,MARS,ANN和RF),最后通过集成模型对其进行了总结。根据真实的技能统计,建模的平均准确度非常好(0.91)。该物种在2050年和2080年的不同气候变化情景下(乐观和悲观情景(RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5)都表现出扩张(增益)和减少(损失)。因此,为了保护该物种,

更新日期:2021-03-08
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