The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most rapidly warming regions on earth, and it is likely that the abundance and distribution of marine predators will change as a result.Procellariiform seabirds are highly mobile predators, which target specific habitat characteristics associated with underlying distributions of prey and areas of increased prey availability. We use ship surveys and hurdle models, to estimate the summer distribution and relative density of 11 seabird species within the northern Antarctic Peninsula marine ecosystem. Models differed among species; however, sea surface temperature and depth were frequently associated with seabird occurrence and had the greatest explanatory power across many species. Null models based on observation data were better at predicting seabird density than models that included environmental covariates. This suggests that the main driver of distribution patterns is the broad-scale habitat features, and fine-scale aggregations within these ranges are harder to predict. Our seabird distribution models reflect known habitat associations, species hotspots, and community organization relative to oceanic and coastal marine processes. Application of species distribution models will benefit the assessments of critical habitat and potential responses to climate change and anthropogenic disturbance, which will provide insight into how species may change in polar ecosystems.

中文翻译：

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南极半岛北部海洋生态系统中原胞状海鸟分布和密度的多尺度评估

南极半岛是地球上变暖速度最快的地区之一，因此海洋捕食者的数量和分布可能会发生变化。 Procellariiform 海鸟是高度机动的捕食者，其目标是与潜在猎物分布相关的特定栖息地特征和增加猎物可用性的区域。我们使用船舶调查和跨栏模型来估计南极半岛北部海洋生态系统中 11 种海鸟的夏季分布和相对密度。模型因物种而异；然而，海表温度和深度经常与海鸟的出现有关，并且对许多物种具有最大的解释力。基于观测数据的空模型比包含环境协变量的模型更能预测海鸟密度。这表明分布模式的主要驱动因素是大范围的栖息地特征，而这些范围内的精细聚集体更难预测。我们的海鸟分布模型反映了与海洋和沿海海洋过程相关的已知栖息地关联、物种热点和群落组织。物种分布模型的应用将有利于评估关键栖息地以及对气候变化和人为干扰的潜在反应，这将有助于深入了解极地生态系统中物种可能如何变化。和与海洋和沿海海洋过程相关的社区组织。物种分布模型的应用将有利于评估关键栖息地以及对气候变化和人为干扰的潜在反应，这将有助于深入了解极地生态系统中物种可能发生的变化。和与海洋和沿海海洋过程相关的社区组织。物种分布模型的应用将有利于评估关键栖息地以及对气候变化和人为干扰的潜在反应，这将有助于深入了解极地生态系统中物种可能如何变化。