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What Will Remain? Predicting the Representation in Protected Areas of Suitable Habitat for Endangered Tropical Avifauna in Borneo under a Combined Climate- and Land-Use Change Scenario
Sustainability ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-05 , DOI: 10.3390/su13052792
Minerva Singh , Jessamine Badcock-Scruton , C. Matilda Collins

The responses of threatened tropical avian species to projected climate change and land-use change are important for evaluating the ability of the existing protected areas to provide habitat to these species under future scenarios in biodiversity hotspots. This study uses Maxent, a species distribution model that employs a maximum entropy machine learning approach to map the spatial distributions of habitats suitable for the International Union for Conservation of Nature threatened birds under present and future climate and land-use change in Borneo. We find that the existing protected areas provide very low coverage of the threatened bird species’ suitable habitat areas (95%CI = 9.3–15.4%). Analysis of habitat suitability projections for 18 species of threatened birds suggests that in 2050, under Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B and B1, avian species with currently little suitable habitat may gain area but lose in the proportion of this that is protected. Large-ranged species are likely to lose habitat area and this will inflate the proportion of this remaining in protected areas. The present availability of suitable habitat was the most important determinant of future habitat availability under both the scenarios. Threat level, as measured by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and the habitat preferences considered here, Lowland or Lowland–Montane, are poor predictors of the amount of habitat contraction or expansion undergone by the species.

中文翻译:

剩下什么?在气候和土地利用变化联合情景下预测婆罗洲濒危热带鸟类的适当栖息地保护区的代表性

受威胁的热带鸟类对预计的气候变化和土地利用变化的反应对于评估现有保护区在未来生物多样性热点下为这些物种提供栖息地的能力至关重要。这项研究使用Maxent(一种物种分布模型),该模型采用最大熵机器学习方法来绘制适合婆罗洲当前和未来气候和土地利用变化的国际自然保护联盟威胁鸟类的栖息地的空间分布。我们发现,现有的保护区对受威胁鸟类的合适栖息地覆盖率很低(95%CI = 9.3–15.4%)。对18种受威胁鸟类的栖息地适宜性预测分析表明,到2050年,根据排放情景特别报告A1B和B1,目前没有合适栖息地的禽类可能会增加面积,但会减少受保护面积的比例。大范围物种很可能会失去栖息地,这将扩大保护区内剩余物种的比例。在这两种情况下,目前合适的栖息地的可用性是决定未来栖息地可用性的最重要决定因素。由国际自然保护联盟和此处考虑的生境偏好(低地或低地-山地)衡量的威胁程度,不能很好地预测该物种所经历的生境收缩或扩张的数量。大范围物种很可能会失去栖息地,这将扩大保护区内剩余物种的比例。在这两种情况下,目前合适的栖息地的可用性是决定未来栖息地可用性的最重要决定因素。由国际自然保护联盟和此处考虑的生境偏好(低地或低地-山地)衡量的威胁程度,不能很好地预测该物种所经历的生境收缩或扩张的数量。大范围物种很可能会失去栖息地,这将扩大保护区内剩余物种的比例。在这两种情况下,目前合适的栖息地的可用性是决定未来栖息地可用性的最重要决定因素。由国际自然保护联盟和此处考虑的生境偏好(低地或低地-山地)衡量的威胁程度,不能很好地预测该物种所经历的生境收缩或扩张的数量。
更新日期:2021-03-05
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