Property‐casualty (PC) insurers are mandated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to report managers’ revisions of loss reserve estimates (“development”) in 10‐K supplemental disclosures. Using manually collected PC insurers’ development, we examine whether analysts’ earnings forecasts incorporate information in development. We initially show that development has incremental power to predict insurers’ future profitability. Although analysts revise earnings forecasts in response to the updates on development in 10‐K filings, their forecast errors are positively related to development. We also find that analysts exhibit greater errors for firms that exert more discretion over development. Overall, our findings suggest that analysts do not fully incorporate the information in managers’ estimates.

中文翻译：

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分析师是否计入应计费用？保险业的证据*

证券交易委员会（SEC）委托财产保险（PC）保险公司在10-K补充披露中报告管理者对损失准备金估计（“发展”）的修订。使用手动收集的PC保险公司的发展情况，我们检查了分析师的收入预测是否将信息纳入发展过程中。我们最初显示，发展具有预测保险公司未来获利能力的增量能力。尽管分析师会根据10-K档案中的开发更新来修订收益预测，但他们的预测误差与发展呈正相关。我们还发现，对于那些对发展施加更多自由裁量权的公司，分析师表现出更大的错误。总体而言，我们的发现表明，分析师并未将信息完全纳入经理的估计中。