We develop an approach to identify whether recent technological advancements—such as the rise of commercial satellite-based macro estimates—can provide an alternative to government data. We measure the extent to which satellite estimates affect the value of a government macro announcement using its asset price impact. Our identification relies on cloud cover, which prevents satellites from observing economic activity at a few key hubs. Applying our approach, we find that some satellite estimates are now so effective that markets are no longer surprised by government announcements. Our results point to a future in which the resolution of macro uncertainty is smoother and governments have less control over macro information.

我们开发一种方法来确定最近的技术进步（例如基于商业卫星的宏观估算的兴起）是否可以提供政府数据的替代方案。我们使用其资产价格影响来衡量卫星估算值对政府宏观公告价值的影响程度。我们的识别依赖于云层，这可以防止卫星观察几个关键枢纽的经济活动。应用我们的方法，我们发现一些卫星估算现在如此有效，以致市场不再对政府的公告感到惊讶。我们的结果表明，未来的宏观不确定性解决方案将更加顺畅，政府对宏观信息的控制也会减少。