Abstract

The pandemic of COVID-19 has caused severe public health consequences around the world. Many interventions of COVID-19 have been implemented. It is of great public health and social importance to evaluate the effects of interventions in the pandemic of COVID-19. With the help of a synthetic control method, the regression discontinuity, and a state-space compartmental model, we evaluated the treatment and stagewise effects of the intervention policies. We found statistically significant treatment effects of broad stringent interventions in Wenzhou and mild interventions in Shanghai to subdue the epidemic’s spread. If those reduction effects were not activated, the expected number of positive individuals would increase by 2.18 times on February 5, 2020, for Wenzhou and 7.69 times on February 4, 2020, for Shanghai, respectively. Alternatively, regression discontinuity elegantly identified the stringent (p-value: <0.001) and mild interventions (p-value: 0.024) lowered the severity of the epidemic. Under the compartmental modeling for different interventions, we understood the importance of implementing the interventions. The highest level alert to COVID-19 was practical and crucial at the early stage of the epidemic. Furthermore, the physical/social distancing policy was necessary once the spread of COVID-19 continued. If appropriate control measures were implemented, then epidemic would be under control effectively and early. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.

摘要

COVID-19 的大流行在世界范围内造成了严重的公共卫生后果。许多 COVID-19 的干预措施已经实施。评估干预措施在 COVID-19 大流行中的效果具有重要的公共卫生和社会重要性。借助综合控制方法、回归不连续性和状态空间分区模型，我们评估了干预政策的处理和阶段性效果。我们发现温州广泛的严格干预和上海的温和干预在抑制流行病传播方面的治疗效果具有统计学意义。如果这些减少效应没有被激活，那么预计2020年2月5日温州和2020年2月4日上海的阳性个体数将分别增加2.18倍和7.69倍。或者，p值：<0.001）和轻度干预（p值：0.024）降低了流行病的严重程度。在不同干预措施的分区模型下，我们了解实施干预措施的重要性。在流行初期，对 COVID-19 的最高级别警报是实用且关键的。此外，一旦 COVID-19 继续传播，就必须采取物理/社会隔离政策。如果采取适当的控制措施，那么疫情将得到有效和早期的控制。本文的补充材料，包括对可用于复制作品的材料的标准化描述，可作为在线补充材料获得。