Temperature is one of the prime factors affecting crop yield and thereby, in changing climate, it is imperative to investigate the co-variability of crop yield and temperature change. Temperature change can manifest itself in multiple factors such as deviation from long-period average, daily scale variability and frequency/intensity of extreme temperature events. To add to the complexity, each of these factors can affect the crop yield differently which necessitates understanding their effect on crop yield individually as well as collectively. Concerning this, we evaluated their distinct and combined impact with respect to threshold temperature of three major crops, i.e. sorghum, sugarcane and millet sown across the Maharashtra State of India. Further, the temperature parameters were conflated using confirmatory factor analysis to formulate a temperature variability index (TVI) that helped in identifying the collective impact of these multiple factors on each crop. Results show that the TVI and sugarcane yield for Nagpur and Bhandara districts of the Vidarbha region exhibited negative co-variability (− 0.30/year), implying the negative impact of temperature change on sugarcane. For sorghum, Wardha and Bhandara of Vidarbha region, Solapur of Pune region and Ratnagiri of Konkan region exhibited negative co-variability with TVI (~− 0.2 to − 0.4/year). Contrary to sugarcane and sorghum, for millets, Akola, Amravati and Chandarpur districts in Vidarbha region; Hingoli, Parbhani, Nanded and Osmanabad in Marathwada region; Satara and Sangli in Pune region; Jalgaon in Nashik region and Ratnagiri; and Sindhudurg in Konkan region exhibited positive co-variability (0.50/year), signifying the favourable temperature conditions for sowing millet. Overall, due to the high exposure of districts to temperature change in Vidarbha and Pune regions, farmers in these districts are advised to refrain from sowing sorghum and sugarcane; instead, farmers can moderate the adverse effects of climate change by sowing millet due to the existence of conducive temperature for millet in Maharashtra. Further, analysis was used to suggest the region and climate-specific cropping pattern for other districts of Maharashtra that can be used by the policy makers to improve the situation of agriculture, farmers and economy of India.

温度是影响农作物产量的主要因素之一，因此，在气候变化的情况下，必须研究农作物产量和温度变化的协变性。温度变化可能以多种因素表现出来，例如与长期平均值的偏差，日尺度变化和极端温度事件的频率/强度。更复杂的是，这些因素中的每一个都会对作物产量产生不同的影响，因此有必要分别或共同地了解它们对作物产量的影响。对此，我们评估了它们对印度马哈拉施特拉邦播种的三种主要农作物（即高粱，甘蔗和小米）的阈值温度的独特影响和综合影响。进一步，使用验证性因子分析来合并温度参数，以制定温度变异性指数（TVI），以帮助确定这些多种因素对每种作物的集体影响。结果表明，维达尔巴地区那格浦尔和班达拉地区的TVI和甘蔗产量表现出负协变性（-0.30 /年），这意味着温度变化对甘蔗产生了负面影响。对于高粱，Vidarbha地区的Wardha和Bhandara，Pune地区的Solapur和Konkan地区的Ratnagiri表现出负协方差。暗示温度变化对甘蔗的负面影响。对于高粱，Vidarbha地区的Wardha和Bhandara，Pune地区的Solapur和Konkan地区的Ratnagiri表现出负协方差。暗示温度变化对甘蔗的负面影响。对于高粱，Vidarbha地区的Wardha和Bhandara，Pune地区的Solapur和Konkan地区的Ratnagiri表现出负协方差。TVI（〜-0.2至-0.4 /年）。与Vidarbha地区的小米，Akola，Amravati和Chandarpur地区的甘蔗和高粱相反；Marathwada地区的Hingoli，Parbhani，Nanded和Osmanabad；浦那地区的Satara和Sangli；纳什克地区和拉特纳吉里（Ratnagiri）的贾尔冈（Jalgaon）；Konkan地区的Sindhudurg和Sindhudurg表现出正的协变性（0.50 /年），这标志着小米播种的有利温度条件。总体而言，由于维达尔巴和普纳地区各地区的气温变化很高，建议这些地区的农民不要播种高粱和甘蔗；相反，由于马哈拉施特拉邦存在小米的有利温度，农民可以通过播种小米来缓解气候变化的不利影响。进一步，