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Prediction of the Standard Deviation of Wind Speed Turbulence
Journal of Environmental Informatics ( IF 7 ) Pub Date : 2018-01-01 , DOI: 10.3808/jei.201800389
G. R. Ren , , J. F. Liu , J. Wan , Q. H. Hu , D. R. Yu , , , , ,

Turbulent wind speed is a vital component of wind speed, corresponding to the small-scale uncertainty of wind speed. The wind power output and aerodynamic loads are significantly influenced by turbulent wind speed. The present paper concentrates on the study of turbulent wind speed prediction, which is hardly addressed in previous studies and is a novel approach to understand turbulent wind speed in advance. In the present study, turbulent wind speed is measured by turbulence standard deviation. Although turbulent wind speed itself is unpredictable, the correlation analysis proves that the turbulence standard deviation is predictable within a proper time horizon. As a result, the turbulent wind speed can be understood ahead of time by predicting turbulence standard deviation. The 10-min ahead, 30-min ahead and 60-min ahead predictions of turbulence standard deviation are provided by Support Vector Regression and Kernel Ridge Regression. Furthermore, the average wind speed is fused into the forecasting model to improve the prediction accuracy of turbulence standard deviation.

中文翻译:

风速湍流标准偏差的预测

湍流风速是风速的重要组​​成部分,对应于风速的小尺度不确定性。风功率输出和气动载荷受湍流风速的影响显着。本论文专注于湍流风速预测的研究,这在以往的研究中很少涉及,是一种提前了解湍流风速的新方法。在本研究中,湍流风速是通过湍流标准偏差来衡量的。尽管湍流风速本身是不可预测的,但相关性分析证明湍流标准偏差在适当的时间范围内是可预测的。因此,通过预测湍流标准偏差,可以提前了解湍流风速。前10分钟,湍流标准偏差的提前 30 分钟和 60 分钟预测由支持向量回归和核岭回归提供。此外,将平均风速融合到预测模型中,以提高湍流标准差的预测精度。
更新日期:2018-01-01
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