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Determinants of global coffee trade: Does RTAs matter? Gravity model analysis
Cogent Economics & Finance Pub Date : 2021-03-05 , DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2021.1892925
Jemal Abafita 1 , Tekilu Tadesse 1
Affiliation  

Abstract

This study investigates the patterns of global coffee trade flows and identifies the major determinants of global coffee trade by incorporating RTAs as important variable. Gravity modeling with OLS and PPML estimator was employed for the analysis using panel data on bilateral coffee trade flows of 18 major coffee exporters and 201 trading partners for the period 2001–2015. Both exporter GDP (and population) as well as importer GDP were found to be important determinants enhancing coffee trade. Of the bilateral distance variables, physical distance is found to impede coffee trade, while common border was found to enhance it. On the other hand, cultural (distance) variables like colonial link, common colonizer and common language were also found to enhance coffee trade. Other variables that were found to significantly enhance coffee trade include depreciation in exporting country’s exchange rate, the amount of arable land in exporting country, infrastructure and global financial crisis. On the other hand, importing country tariff was found to significantly reduce coffee trade as expected. Surprisingly, the RTA variable had no significant impact on coffee bilateral trade.



中文翻译:

全球咖啡贸易的决定因素:区域贸易协定重要吗?重力模型分析

摘要

这项研究调查了全球咖啡贸易流量的模式,并通过将RTA纳入重要变量来确定了全球咖啡贸易的主要决定因素。使用OLS和PPML估算器进行重力建模,使用有关18个主要咖啡出口商和201个贸易伙伴在2001-2015年期间的双边咖啡贸易流量的面板数据进行分析。发现出口国GDP(和人口)以及进口商GDP都是促进咖啡贸易的重要决定因素。在双边距离变量中,发现物理距离会阻碍咖啡贸易,而发现共同边界会增强咖啡贸易。另一方面,还发现了文化(距离)变量,例如殖民地联系,共同的殖民者和共同的语言,可以促进咖啡贸易。发现可以显着增强咖啡贸易的其他变量包括出口国的汇率贬值,出口国的耕地数量,基础设施和全球金融危机。另一方面,发现进口国的关税大大降低了咖啡贸易的预期。令人惊讶的是,RTA变量对咖啡双边贸易没有重大影响。

更新日期:2021-03-05
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