Drawing upon the comprehensive survey of the American Jewish population conducted in 2013 by the Pew Research Center, we estimate the trajectory of the population and its denominational segments, 50 years into the future. Our analysis relies upon estimates of the population in 2013, fertility rates, marriage behaviors, and denominational switching patterns as inputs into a model of population demographics. We project that over the next 50 years, the demographics of U.S. Jews are likely to change dramatically, with the share of the population that is Orthodox rising from 12 percent to 29 percent, with their share of the child population increasing from 22 percent to 51 percent. Among Reform and Conservative Jews, the number of 30- to 69-year-olds is projected to drop by approximately 46 percent over this period. We also project a slight drop in the total Jewish population followed by a recovery propelled by the growing Orthodox population.

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预测宗教人口统计：美国犹太人的案例

根据皮尤研究中心 2013 年对美国犹太人口进行的全面调查，我们估计了未来 50 年人口及其教派部分的轨迹。我们的分析依赖于对 2013 年人口的估计、生育率、婚姻行为和教派转换模式，作为人口统计模型的输入。我们预计，在接下来的 50 年中，美国犹太人的人口结构可能会发生巨大变化，东正教人口的比例从 12% 上升到 29%，他们在儿童人口中的比例从 22% 上升到 51百分。在改革派和保守派犹太人中，预计在此期间 30 至 69 岁的人数将下降约 46%。