This paper examines the relationship between income shocks and conflict across Nigerian states over the 2000s. By matching consumption, production, commodity prices and conflict data, the analysis captures two opposite channels linking agricultural price changes to conflict. Consistently with the opportunity cost mechanism of conflict, price increases of commodities produced by the households have a conflict-reducing effect, while the opposite is true for prices of consumed commodities. The net impact turns out to be conflict inducing in contrast with most of the related literature that focuses on the production side of agricultural price shocks. These results underscore the importance of modelling both production and consumption effects to get consistent estimates of the impact of price changes on conflict.

中文翻译：

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收入冲击和冲突：来自尼日利亚的证据

本文研究了 2000 年代尼日利亚各州的收入冲击与冲突之间的关系。通过匹配消费、生产、商品价格和冲突数据，该分析捕获了将农产品价格变化与冲突联系起来的两个相反渠道。与冲突的机会成本机制一致，家庭生产的商品价格上涨具有减少冲突的作用，而消费商品的价格则相反。与大多数关注农产品价格冲击的生产方面的相关文献相比，净影响结果是引发冲突。这些结果强调了对生产和消费影响建模的重要性，以获得对价格变化对冲突影响的一致估计。