Log prices can be volatile and hard to predict from month to month. For those tasked with managing timberland investments and the marketing of logs, however, short run predictions of price could be useful. This study shows that Douglas-fir log prices can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using only a small amount of readily available macro-economic information. For example, nearly half of the variation in log prices over time can be predicted using the number of housing permits issued in a month. Information about exchange rates and mortgage rates provide further refinement of estimates. An attribution experiment shows that expansionary U.S. monetary policy over the last decade has raised log prices by about 5% above what they otherwise would have been. A strengthening U.S. dollar increased the supply of Canadian softwood in U.S. markets, however, and had a depressing effect on U.S. log prices. The results illustrate how policies enacted in locations far from forest-dependent communities can nonetheless have outsized impacts.

原木价格可能会不稳定，而且每个月都难以预测。但是，对于那些负责管理林地投资和原木销售的人来说，短期的价格预测可能会有用。这项研究表明，仅使用少量易于获得的宏观经济信息，就可以以合理的准确性预测道格拉斯冷杉原木价格。例如，可以使用一个月内颁发的住房许可证数量来预测原木价格随时间变化的近一半。有关汇率和抵押贷款利率的信息可进一步完善估算值。一项归因实验显示，过去十年来，美国扩张性的货币政策使原木价格比原本的价格提高了约5％。美元走强增加了美国市场上加拿大软木的供应，但是，这对美国原木价格产生了令人沮丧的影响。结果表明，在远离依赖森林的社区的地方制定的政策将如何产生巨大影响。