Energy Strategy Reviews ( IF 8.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-04 , DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100613 Jianghong Feng , Su Xiu Xu
Photovoltaic (PV) has been regarded as the most promising, technically viable large-scale renewable energy source for a sustainable society. However, as the demand for solar energy is generally rising, the world needs to fundamentally reconsider the development of PV generation technology. The objective of this study is to propose a comprehensive method to study the role of technological paradigms in the development of PV generation, and to contribute to PV generation policy recommendations and system management. A novel document data mining analysis system and the technological paradigm theory are used to conduct the study. PV generation technology paradigm composed of paradigm competition, diffusion and shift is established to explain the technological changes in the use of PV energy. In this paper, the autoregressive moving average model is used to make short-term forecasts of the PV generation installed capacity, and to compare with the data predicted by Prospective Industry Research Institute. The results show that the forecasting method herein is effective and reliable. Also, this paper discusses the benefits and barriers of PV generation technology. However, to achieve higher market share in electricity generation, more support policies, multi-level cooperation, technical support and capital investment are needed. Moreover, this study provides an analysis framework for the soft path analysis of PV generation technology to achieve sustainable PV technological development.
中文翻译:
基于集成技术范式的光伏发电技术新方法
光伏(PV)被认为是可持续社会中最有前途,技术上可行的大规模可再生能源。然而,随着对太阳能的需求普遍上升,世界需要从根本上重新考虑光伏发电技术的发展。这项研究的目的是提出一种综合方法,以研究技术范式在光伏发电发展中的作用,并为光伏发电政策建议和系统管理做出贡献。本文采用新颖的文档数据挖掘分析系统和技术范式理论进行了研究。建立了由范式竞争,扩散和转移组成的光伏发电技术范式,以解释光伏能源利用中的技术变化。在本文中,自回归移动平均模型用于对光伏发电装机容量进行短期预测,并与准工业研究所预测的数据进行比较。结果表明,本文的预测方法是有效和可靠的。此外,本文还讨论了光伏发电技术的优势和障碍。但是,要在发电中获得更高的市场份额,需要更多的支持政策,多层次合作,技术支持和资本投资。此外,本研究为光伏发电技术的软路径分析提供了一个分析框架,以实现可持续的光伏技术发展。结果表明,本文的预测方法是有效和可靠的。此外,本文还讨论了光伏发电技术的优势和障碍。但是,为了在发电中获得更高的市场份额,需要更多的支持政策,多层次合作,技术支持和资本投资。此外,本研究为光伏发电技术的软路径分析提供了一个分析框架,以实现可持续的光伏技术发展。结果表明,本文的预测方法是有效和可靠的。此外,本文还讨论了光伏发电技术的优势和障碍。但是,为了在发电中获得更高的市场份额,需要更多的支持政策,多层次合作,技术支持和资本投资。此外,本研究为光伏发电技术的软路径分析提供了一个分析框架,以实现可持续的光伏技术发展。