Multinomial models can be difficult to use when constraints are placed on the probabilities. An exact model checking procedure for such models is developed based on a uniform prior on the full multinomial model. For inference, a nonuniform prior can be used and a consistency theorem is proved concerning a check for prior-data conflict with the chosen prior. Applications are presented and a new elicitation methodology is developed for multinomial models with ordered probabilities.

中文翻译：

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检查模型失败以及与约束多项式模型的先验数据冲突

当对概率施加约束时，多项模型可能难以使用。此类模型的精确模型检查程序是基于完整多项式模型的统一先验开发的。对于推理，可以使用非均匀先验，并证明一致性定理涉及检查先验数据与所选先验的冲突。提出了应用程序，并为具有有序概率的多项模型开发了一种新的启发方法。