The conservation and management of endangered species, including sea turtles, require consistent long-term monitoring of productivity (e.g., number of hatchlings emerged per nest, per female, per nesting site, per population). In sea turtle species, some of the relevant data are obtained by estimating the number of hatched eggs from fragments found in the nest after hatching. Yet, no formal assessment of the associated error has been published. Here we provide an estimation of the error associated with the most widespread method used to determine sea turtle productivity (count of shell fragments > 50% of the egg size) using a large dataset (n = 8539) of actual and estimated clutch sizes of four sea turtle species (Caretta caretta, Chelonia mydas, Dermochelys coriacea, Eretmochelys imbricata). The data are analyzed through linear mixed models with several explanatory variables. Results show that the error can be large in certain cases and, when the associated error rate is not adequately considered, may represent a serious problem in studies on reproductive parameters such as clutch size. Some significant explanatory variables suggest that some sources of error are linked to species-specific biological traits (e.g., clutch size, egg size, nest depth), and others imply human error. Other biotic and abiotic factors may also be involved. We recommend that—whenever possible—errors be assessed and adequately reported by studies that estimate clutch size, hatching and emergence success, or hatchling production.

对包括海龟在内的濒危物种的保护和管理需要对生产力进行长期的长期监测（例如，每个巢穴，每个雌性，每个筑巢地点，每个种群出现的幼体数量）。在海龟物种中，一些相关数据是通过估计孵化后在巢中发现的碎片中孵出的卵的数量而获得的。但是，尚未发布对相关错误的正式评估。在此，我们使用一个实际的和估计的四个离合器大小的大型数据集（n = 8539）来估计与最广泛的方法相关的误差，该方法用于确定海龟的生产力（壳碎片数>鸡蛋大小的50％）海龟种类（Car 、,、 my，ia，E））。通过带有几个解释变量的线性混合模型对数据进行分析。结果表明，在某些情况下，误差可能会很大，如果未充分考虑相关的误差率，则可能是生殖参数（如离合器尺寸）研究中的一个严重问题。一些重要的解释变量表明，某些错误来源与特定物种的生物特征有关（例如，离合器的大小，卵的大小，巢深度），而其他的则暗示人为错误。其他生物和非生物因素也可能涉及。我们建议在可能的情况下，通过估算离合器尺寸，孵化和出苗成功率或孵化产量的研究来评估错误，并充分报告错误。