ABSTRACT

The Middle East has witnessed major geopolitical shifts since 2011 that range from the growing influence of the Gulf states, the pivot to Africa of many of the region’s countries and the new dynamics of global penetration, to the proliferation of regional cleavages and intra-state conflicts, as well as more volatile alliances and rivalries. This article assesses the implications of those shifts for the European Union and its capacity to shape or adapt to new realities. In the past continuities have tended to prevail in the EU’s strategies, policies and toolbox vis-à-vis the region. The intensity of the transformations the Middle East is going through as well as their impact on Europe itself may oblige the EU to make a move now. Europe’s leverage and credibility are at stake.

摘要

自2011年以来，中东发生了重大的地缘政治变化，范围从海湾国家的影响力不断扩大，该区域许多国家向非洲的转移到全球，以及全球渗透的新动力，到区域分裂和国家内部冲突的扩散。以及更不稳定的联盟和竞争。本文评估了这些转变对欧盟的影响及其塑造或适应新现实的能力。过去，欧盟相对于该地区的战略，政策和工具箱通常倾向于连续性。中东正在进行的转型的强度及其对欧洲本身的影响可能迫使欧盟现在采取行动。欧洲的杠杆作用和信誉受到威胁。