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Commentary on “Transparent modelling of influenza incidence”: Is the answer simplicity or adaptability?
International Journal of Forecasting ( IF 7.022 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-03 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.001
Jennifer L. Castle 1
Affiliation  

It is a pleasure to comment on the paper by Katsikopoulos et al. (2021), where they present a provocative and stimulating viewpoint in which they argue that simple forecasting rules based on heuristics frequently outperform big data models and should be used as a benchmark when testing big data models. I argue that it is important not to conflate simplicity with adaptability, and that there is a role for big data models in forecasting.



中文翻译:

“流感发病率的透明建模”评论:答案是简单还是适应性?

很高兴评论 Katsikopoulos 等人的论文。(2021 年),他们提出了一个具有挑衅性和启发性的观点,他们认为基于启发式的简单预测规则经常优于大数据模型,在测试大数据模型时应该用作基准。我认为重要的是不要将简单性与适应性混为一谈,并且大数据模型在预测中发挥着作用。

更新日期:2021-03-03
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