Purpose

There are several methods developed in the recent past to predict the spread of COVID-19 in different countries. However, due to changing scenarios in terms of interaction among people, none could predict the case close to the actual figures. An attempt to simulate people's interaction due to economic reopening concerning the confirmed cases at various places as per changing situation has been made. The scenario development method's base lies in the hypothesis that if there were no inter-state transportation during India's lockdown after May 24th, the number of infection cases would have started lowering down in a normalized progression.

Design/methodology/approach

This study has developed three scenarios from the worst to the business-as-usual to the best in order to project the COVID-19 infections in India concerning infections observed from January 30th till May 24th, 2020, since the domestic flights became operational from May 25th, 2020, in India.

Findings

Based on the observed cases till May 24th, the rise of cases is projected further in a random progression and superimposed to the normal progression. The results obtained in the three scenarios present that worst case needs complete lockdown, business-as-usual case needs regulatory lockdown and best case assures complete lockdown release by the second week of September 2020. This study suggests the preparedness and mitigation strategy for a threefold lockdown management scheme in all-inclusive.

Originality/value

The work has been done on a hypothesis which is solely original.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 在不断变化的场景中的蔓延：一种基于社交互动的方法

目的

最近开发了几种方法来预测 COVID-19 在不同国家的传播。然而，由于人与人之间的互动场景不断变化，没有人能够预测出接近实际数字的情况。针对各地的确诊病例，根据形势的变化，尝试模拟因经济重新开放而引起的人们的互动。情景开发方法的基础在于假设，如果在 5 月 24 日之后印度的封锁期间没有州际交通，感染病例的数量将开始以正常的进程下降。

设计/方法/方法

本研究开发了三种情况，从最坏到一切照旧再到最好，以便预测自 2020 年 1 月 30 日至 5 月 24 日印度国内航班开始运营以来观察到的 COVID-19 感染情况2020 年 2 月 25 日，在印度。

发现

根据截至 5 月 24 日观察到的病例，病例的增加按随机进程进一步预测，并叠加到正常进程上。在三种情况下获得的结果表明，最坏的情况需要完全封锁，一切照旧的情况需要监管封锁，最好的情况是确保在 2020 年 9 月的第二周之前完全解除封锁。这项研究提出了三重准备和缓解策略包罗万象的锁定管理方案。

原创性/价值

这项工作是在一个完全原创的假设上完成的。