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A rebuilding time model for Pacific salmon
Fisheries Research ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-03 , DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2021.105900
Michael R. O’Farrell , William H. Satterthwaite

We describe a new model developed for the purpose of projecting rebuilding periods for overfished Pacific salmon stocks as defined by the Pacific Fishery Management Council. The model has relatively low data requirements as it relies on past estimates of abundance to project future abundance, accounting for positive lag-1 autocorrelation if there is evidence of its existence. Replicate applications of the model allow for computation of the probability of achieving rebuilt status in future years. Application to simulated abundance and escapement data suggested that model-projected rebuilding times generally corresponded to simulated rebuilding times as raw errors were median unbiased. Simulations also suggested that results were generally robust to parameter misspecification and that increased levels of lag-1 autocorrelation in abundance were associated with longer rebuilding periods. The application of the model to five overfished stocks in 2018–2019 illustrated the differences in projected rebuilding times under alternative rebuilding management strategies. The model filled a need for relatively rapid assessment of alternative rebuilding strategies for Pacific salmon stocks, a need that will likely remain given current biological reference points and fluctuations in salmon abundance.



中文翻译:

太平洋鲑鱼的重建时间模型

我们描述了一种新模型,该模型旨在预测太平洋渔业管理委员会定义的过度捕捞的太平洋鲑鱼种群的重建时期。该模型的数据需求相对较低,因为它依赖于过去的丰度估计来预测未来的丰度,如果存在证据,则说明正lag-1自相关。该模型的重复应用程序允许计算未来几年达到重建状态的可能性。在模拟的丰度和擒纵数据中的应用表明,模型预测的重建时间通常与模拟的重建时间相对应,因为原始误差是中值的。模拟还表明,结果通常对参数错误指定具有鲁棒性,并且大量的lag-1自相关水平增加与更长的重建时间相关。该模型在2018-2019年对五种过度捕捞种群的应用说明了在替代重建管理战略下预计重建时间的差异。该模型满足了对太平洋鲑鱼种群替代重建策略的相对快速评估的需求,鉴于当前的生物学参考点和鲑鱼丰度的波动,这一需求可能仍会存在。

更新日期:2021-03-03
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