Climate change represents an increasing stressor on estuarine and coastal ecosystems. A series of simulations were run using the Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model to determine the magnitude of various mechanisms controlling the effect of climate warming on dissolved oxygen (DO) in the Chesapeake Bay. The results suggested that the average hypoxic volume in the summer would increase by 9% (410 Mm³) from 1995 to 2025 as air temperature increases by 1.06°C and water temperature by 0.9°C. The change in DO solubility contributes 55% of the total climate warming effect, biological rates 33%, and stratification 11%. The Rappahannock Shoal, a hydraulic control point, plays a major role in determining the effect of climate warming on DO in the Bay. Due to the abrupt change in bathymetry, the convergence between seaward-moving freshwater and landward-moving saltwater causes downwelling and enhanced vertical mixing which introduces surface water of higher temperature to the deep channel and accelerates organic matter remineralization and oxygen consumption in deep waters. Surface water DO concentrations will decrease under climate warming conditions due to lower DO solubility, reducing DO flux to the deep channel and contributing to hypoxia development. These findings provide critical information for future management decision making regarding the effects of climate warming on DO in Chesapeake Bay and other estuaries.

中文翻译：

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控制气候变暖对切萨皮克湾缺氧发生影响的机制

气候变化对河口和沿海生态系统造成越来越大的压力。使用综合隔室水质模型运行了一系列模拟，以确定控制气候变暖对切萨皮克湾溶解氧 (DO) 影响的各种机制的大小。结果表明，夏季平均缺氧量将增加9%（410 Mm ³) 从 1995 年到 2025 年，气温升高 1.06°C，水温升高 0.9°C。溶解氧溶解度的变化贡献了总气候变暖效应的 55%，生物率占 33%，分层占 11%。拉帕汉诺克浅滩是一个水力控制点，在确定气候变暖对海湾溶解氧的影响方面起着重要作用。由于测深的突然变化，向海移动的淡水和向陆地移动的咸水之间的汇合导致下流和增强的垂直混合，将温度较高的地表水引入深水通道，加速深水有机质再矿化和氧气消耗。由于较低的 DO 溶解度，地表水 DO 浓度将在气候变暖条件下降低，减少 DO 流向深通道并促进缺氧发展。这些发现为未来关于气候变暖对切萨皮克湾和其他河口 DO 的影响的管理决策提供了关键信息。