Climate change is already known to cause irreversible impacts on ecosystems that are difficult to accurately predict due to the multiple scales at which it will interact. Predictions at the community level are mainly focused on the future distribution of marine species biomass using ecological niche modelling, which requires extensive efforts concerning the effects that trophic interactions could have on the realized species dynamics. In this study, a set of species distribution models predictions were used to force the spatially-explicit trophic model Ecospace in order to evaluate the potentials impacts that two 2,100 climate scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, could have on a highly exploited ecosystem, the Bay of Seine (France). Simulations demonstrated that both scenarios would influence the community of the Bay of Seine ecosystem: as expected, more intense changes were predicted with the extreme scenario RCP8.5 than with the RCP2.6 scenario. Under both scenarios, a majority of species underwent a decrease of biomass, although some increased. However, in both cases the stability of the majority of species dynamics was lowered, the sustainability of the fishery. Differences between niche modelling predictions and those obtained through the forcing in Ecospace highlighted the paramount importance of considering trophic interactions in climate change simulations. These results illustrate the requirement of multiplying novel approaches for efficiently forecasting potential impacts of climate change.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对塞纳湾生态系统的影响：利用生态位模型预测强制建立时空营养模型

众所周知，气候变化会对生态系统造成不可逆转的影响，由于其相互作用的多尺度，这些影响难以准确预测。群落层面的预测主要集中在使用生态位建模的海洋物种生物量的未来分布上，这需要在营养相互作用可能对已实现的物种动态产生的影响方面进行广泛的努力。在这项研究中，一组物种分布模型预测用于强制空间显式营养模型生态空间，以评估两个 2,100 气候情景 RCP2.6 和 RCP8.5 可能对高度开发的生态系统产生的潜在影响，塞纳湾（法国）。模拟表明，这两种情况都会影响塞纳湾生态系统的社区：正如预期的那样，与 RCP2.6 情景相比，RCP8.5 极端情景预测的变化更为剧烈。在这两种情况下，大多数物种的生物量都减少了，尽管有些物种增加了。然而，在这两种情况下，大多数物种动态的稳定性都降低了，渔业的可持续性。生态位建模预测与通过生态空间强迫获得的预测之间的差异突出了在气候变化模拟中考虑营养相互作用的最重要意义。这些结果说明需要多种新方法来有效预测气候变化的潜在影响。然而，在这两种情况下，大多数物种动态的稳定性都降低了，渔业的可持续性。生态位建模预测与通过生态空间强迫获得的预测之间的差异突出了在气候变化模拟中考虑营养相互作用的最重要意义。这些结果说明需要多种新方法来有效预测气候变化的潜在影响。然而，在这两种情况下，大多数物种动态的稳定性都降低了，渔业的可持续性。生态位建模预测与通过生态空间强迫获得的预测之间的差异突出了在气候变化模拟中考虑营养相互作用的最重要意义。这些结果说明需要多种新方法来有效预测气候变化的潜在影响。