SUMMARY The recurrence time of large earthquakes above a predefined magnitude threshold on specific faults or fault segments is one of the key parameters for the development of long-term Earthquake Rupture Forecast models. Observational data of successive large earthquakes per fault segment are often limited and thus inadequate for the construction of robust statistical models. The physics-based earthquake simulators are a powerful tool to overcome recurrence data limitations by generating long earthquake records. A physics-based simulator, embodying well known physical processes, is applied in the North Aegean Trough (NAT) Fault Zone (Greece). The application of the simulation is implemented, after defining a five segment source model, aiming at the investigation of the recurrence behaviour of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6.5 and Mw ≥ 7.0. The detailed examination of the 544 Mw ≥ 6.5 earthquakes included in the simulated catalogue reveals that both single and multiple segmented ruptures can be realized along the NAT. Results of statistical analysis of the interevent times of Mw ≥ 6.5 and Mw≥ 7.0 earthquakes per participating segment to the related ruptures indicate the better performance of the Brownian Passage Time renewal model in comparison to exponential model. These results provide evidence for quasi-periodic recurrence behaviour, agreeing with the elastic rebound theory, instead of Poissonian behaviour.

中文翻译：

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使用基于物理的模拟器模拟北爱琴海槽断层带（希腊）的大地震复发时间

总结 在特定断层或断层段上超过预定震级阈值的大地震的重现时间是开发长期地震破裂预测模型的关键参数之一。每个断层段连续大地震的观测数据通常是有限的，因此不足以构建稳健的统计模型。基于物理的地震模拟器是通过生成长地震记录来克服重复数据限制的强大工具。在北爱琴海槽 (NAT) 断层带（希腊）中应用了基于物理的模拟器，该模拟器体现了众所周知的物理过程。在定义了一个五段震源模型后，实施了模拟应用，旨在研究Mw≥6.5和Mw≥7.0地震的复发行为。对模拟目录中包含的 544 Mw ≥ 6.5 地震的详细检查表明，沿 NAT 可以实现单分段和多分段破裂。对每个参与节段的 Mw ≥ 6.5 和 Mw ≥ 7.0 地震到相关破裂的间隔时间的统计分析结果表明，与指数模型相比，布朗通道时间更新模型的性能更好。这些结果为准周期性复发行为提供了证据，与弹性反弹理论一致，而不是泊松行为。与相关破裂相关的每个参与分段 0 次地震表明，与指数模型相比，布朗通道时间更新模型的性能更好。这些结果为准周期性复发行为提供了证据，与弹性反弹理论一致，而不是泊松行为。与相关破裂相关的每个参与分段 0 次地震表明，与指数模型相比，布朗通道时间更新模型的性能更好。这些结果为准周期性复发行为提供了证据，与弹性反弹理论一致，而不是泊松行为。