The seasonal precipitation (SP) trend and its sensitivity to teleconnection patterns over the East Mediterranean (EM) region remain inconsistent. Based on rainfall records during 1974–2016 at seven meteorological stations in the Gaza region, this study aims to (1) analyze the observed SP trend over the Gaza region, and (2) examine the SP sensitivity to climate indices. Pearson and Spearman correlations between climate indices and SP in the current and following years were calculated, and the seasonal period (particular month) with the highest correlation was identified. Results show that the climate indices, with greater impact on SP over the Gaza region in the autumn and spring, were in the order; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) > East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) > North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) > Arctic Oscillation (AO). The indices’ impact was minimal in the winter precipitation. ENSO types’ correlations (Southern Oscillation Index-SOI and Niño 3.4) were moderate and significant at α = 0.05. Rainfall at most stations positively correlates with AO and EAWR in spring and autumn. During the study period, warm phases of ENSO (i.e., El Niño) intensified autumn precipitation. Simultaneously with warm phases of EAWR or AO, more influence on autumn precipitation is exerted. Cold phases of ENSO (i.e., La Niña) have an adverse impact compared to El Niño. EAWR co-variation was evident only with the ENSO. Regarding AO, a non-meaningful action was noticed during the neutral phases of ENSO and EAWR. The findings of this study help understand and predict the seasonal trend of precipitation over the Gaza region. This is essential to set up climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the EM region.

中文翻译：

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加沙（巴勒斯坦）季节性降水的变化及其对遥相关型的敏感性

东地中海（EM）区域的季节性降水（SP）趋势及其对遥相关模式的敏感性仍然不一致。基于1974-2016年加沙地区七个气象站的降雨记录，本研究旨在（1）分析加沙地区观测到的SP趋势，以及（2）检查SP对气候指数的敏感性。计算了当年及以后年份气候指数与SP之间的皮尔逊和斯皮尔曼相关性，并确定了相关性最高的季节（特别是月份）。结果表明，秋季和春季对加沙地区SP的影响更大的气候指数是有序的；厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）>东大西洋/俄罗斯西部（EAWR）>北大西洋涛动（NAO）>北极涛动（AO）。在冬季降水中，该指数的影响最小。ENSO类型的相关性（南方涛动指数-SOI和Niño3.4）是中等且显着的，α= 0.05。在春季和秋季，大多数台站的降雨与AO和EAWR呈正相关。在研究期间，ENSO的暖相（即厄尔尼诺现象）加剧了秋季降水。与EAWR或AO的暖期同时，对秋季降水的影响更大。与厄尔尼诺现象相比，ENSO的冷期（即拉尼娜）具有不利影响。EAWR协变仅在ENSO中才明显。关于AO，在ENSO和EAWR的中立阶段注意到了无意义的行动。这项研究的结果有助于了解和预测加沙地区降水的季节性趋势。