ABSTRACT

This study compares Mexico's rural population and cross-border out-migration trends between 2000 and 2010 censuses. In spite of widespread predictions of post-NAFTA depopulation, the size of Mexico's rural population has remained steady. This study documents the significant absolute size and geographic concentration of Mexico's persistent rural population as well as the decreasing rate of outmigration to the United States. Mexico experienced two contradictory trends between 2000 and 2010: (1) migration intensity increased in one-third of predominantly rural municipalities, while (2) more than half of the rural population continued to live in municipalities with low dependency on cross-border migration.

摘要

本研究比较了 2000 年至 2010 年人口普查期间墨西哥的农村人口和跨境外迁趋势。尽管广泛预测北美自由贸易协定后人口将减少，但墨西哥农村人口的规模一直保持稳定。这项研究记录了墨西哥持续农村人口的显着绝对规模和地理集中度，以及移民到美国的下降率。墨西哥在 2000 年和 2010 年之间经历了两个相互矛盾的趋势：(1) 在三分之一以农村为主的城市中，移民强度增加，而 (2) 一半以上的农村人口继续居住在对跨境移民依赖度较低的城市。