Pensions may be provided for in a modern society by a mix of several methods, namely by voluntary individual savings, mandatory fully-funded occupational pension systems, mandatory social security financed by pay-as-you-go, and old-fashioned hoarding in cash. We call a specific mixture of the four systems a pension composition. We assume that individual workers decide on their own individual savings, that the fully-funded occupational system is decided upon by the age cohort of the median worker, and that social security is decided upon by the median voter. We assume that individual and collective pension savings are the only sources of capital supply. When capital supply equals demand from industry, there is equilibrium in the capital market with a corresponding equilibrium interest rate and pension composition. In this paper, we assume a demography with one hundred age brackets and we investigate how changes in the birth rates, survival rates, and the retirement age affect the pension composition and the capital market equilibrium. Our conclusion is that for a given technology, the pension composition and the interest rate are determined by the demography and cannot be modified at will as a long-term political instrument.

中文翻译：

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人口统计和退休准备金：养老金构成，一种行为方法

现代社会可以通过多种方式来提供养老金，即自愿个人储蓄、强制性全额资助的职业养老金制度、现收现付的强制性社会保障以及老式囤积现金. 我们称这四种系统的特定混合为养老金构成. 我们假设个体工人决定他们自己的个人储蓄，完全资助的职业体系由中位工人的年龄组决定，社会保障由中位选民决定。我们假设个人和集体养老金储蓄是资本供应的唯一来源。当资本供给等于工业需求时，资本市场存在均衡，相应的均衡利率和养老金构成。在本文中，我们假设人口结构有 100 个年龄段，并研究出生率、存活率和退休年龄的变化如何影响养老金构成和资本市场均衡。我们的结论是，对于给定的技术，