We propose that much of the variation in standard (accruals and real-activities) earnings management metrics can be explained by firms' performance trajectories. We test our proposition using dividend change to distinguish high from low performance trajectory firms. We find that standard earnings management metrics have a stronger relation with performance trajectories than with unexpected earnings, a presumed target of earnings management. Firms that appear to manage earnings more are likelier to increase their dividends, but standard earnings management metrics do not explain changes in firm value around dividend change announcements. Applying standard earnings management metrics without taking performance trajectories into account can result in mistaking managers' efforts to increase firm value for earnings management.

我们提出，标准（应计项目和实际活动）盈余管理指标的大部分变化可以用公司的绩效轨迹来解释。我们使用股息变化来测试我们的主张，以区分高绩效轨迹公司和低绩效轨迹公司。我们发现标准盈余管理指标与绩效轨迹的关系比与意外收益（盈余管理的假定目标）的关系更强。似乎对盈余进行更多管理的公司更有可能增加股息，但标准盈余管理指标并不能解释公司价值在股息变化公告周围的变化。在不考虑绩效轨迹的情况下应用标准盈余管理指标可能会导致管理者误认为为盈余管理增加公司价值的努力。