Why do stock prices vary? Using survey forecasts, we find that cash flow growth expectations explain most movements in the S&P 500 price‐dividend and price‐earnings ratios, accounting for at least 93% and 63% of their variation. These expectations comove strongly with price ratios, even when price ratios do not predict future cash flow growth. In comparison, return expectations have low volatility and small comovement with price ratios. Short‐term, rather than long‐term, expectations account for most price ratio variation. We propose an asset pricing model with beliefs about earnings growth reversal that accurately replicates these cash flow growth expectations and dynamics.

中文翻译：

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主观现金流量和折现率预期

为什么股票价格会有所不同？使用调查预测，我们发现现金流量增长预期可以解释标准普尔500指数价格和市盈率的大部分变动，至少占其变动幅度的93％和63％。即使价格比不能预测未来现金流量的增长，这些期望也会与价格比强烈地吻合。相比之下，收益预期的波动性低，与价格比率的联动性很小。短期而不是长期的预期是大多数价格比率变动的原因。我们提出一种资产定价模型，该模型应具有关于收益增长逆转的信念，该模型可以准确地复制这些现金流量增长的预期和动态。