The main objective of this paper is to analyze the causality effect of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on the prices of precious metals. We employ the Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap causality test and the time-varying version of this test to detect the instabilities in the causality relationship by using monthly data in the period of January 1995–August 2020. While the findings of the Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap causality test show there is no causal link from geopolitical risk to the precious metal prices, and there exists causality from economic policy uncertainty to all prices except gold, the findings of the time-varying causality test indicate these findings are unstable. The causality relationship exists in only some periods. It implies that the existence of the causality links from geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty to the precious metal prices is changing in the analysis period.

本文的主要目的是分析经济政策不确定性和地缘政治风险对贵金属价格的因果关系。我们采用Hacker和Hatemi-J（2012）的引导因果关系测试以及该测试的时变版本，通过使用1995年1月至2020年8月的月度数据来检测因果关系中的不稳定性。 Hacker and Hatemi-J（2012）的因果关系检验表明，从地缘政治风险到贵金属价格之间没有因果关系，而经济政策的不确定性与除黄金以外的所有价格均存在因果关系，随时间变化的因果关系检验表明这些发现是不稳定的。因果关系仅在某些时期存在。