Using a new narrative dataset on fiscal consolidation announcements for thirteen EU countries over the period 1978–2013, a panel VAR analysis shows that revenue-based announcements appear more credible, but affect economic activity more adversely than do spending-based announcements. Higher revenue multipliers and, to a lesser extent, larger actual follow-up following a revenue-based announcement help to explain the difference. The uniqueness of our dataset allows to control for anticipation effects of budgetary implementation and variables that respond quickly to news. The main findings are similar if we include in the specification open-economy variables.

使用新的叙述性数据集，分析了1978- 2013年间13个欧盟国家的财政合并公告，基于面板的VAR分析显示，基于收入的公告似乎比基于支出的公告更可信，但对经济活动的影响更大。基于收入的公告之后，更高的收入乘数，以及在较小程度上，更大的实际后续行动有助于解释这种差异。我们数据集的独特性允许控制预算执行的预期效果以及对新闻做出快速响应的变量。如果我们在规范中包括开放经济变量，则主要发现是相似的。