Lloyd et al. (2020) proposed and tested a novel three-step framework for examining the extent to which reassessment of dynamic risk and protective factors enhances the prediction of imminent criminal recidivism. We conducted a conceptual replication of Lloyd et al.’s study. We used the same dynamic risk assessment measure in the same jurisdiction but, unlike Lloyd et al., our sample comprised solely high-risk men on parole in New Zealand (N = 966), the individuals who are most frequently reassessed in the community and most likely to imminently reoffend. The results of the previous study were largely reproduced: reassessment consistently enhanced prediction, with the most pronounced effects observed for a scale derived from theoretically acute dynamic risk factors. These findings indicate reassessment effects are robust to sample selection based on a narrower range of risk levels and remain robust across years of practice in applied contexts, despite potential organizational drift from initial training and reassessment fatigue. The findings also provide further support for the practice of ongoing risk reassessment in community supervision and suggest that the method proposed by Lloyd et al. is a replicable approach for testing the essential criteria for defining dynamic risk and protective factors.

劳埃德等人。（2020）提出并测试了一个新的三步框架，用于检查动态风险和保护因素的重新评估在多大程度上增强了对即将发生的犯罪再犯的预测。我们对 Lloyd 等人的研究进行了概念复制。我们在同一司法管辖区使用了相同的动态风险评估措施，但与 Lloyd 等人不同的是，我们的样本仅包括新西兰假释的高风险男性（ N= 966），在社区中最常被重新评估并且最有可能立即再次犯罪的个人。先前研究的结果在很大程度上得到了复制：重新评估持续增强了预测，对于源自理论上的急性动态风险因素的量表观察到的效果最为显着。这些发现表明，重新评估效果对于基于更窄风险水平范围的样本选择是稳健的，并且在应用环境中的多年实践中保持稳健，尽管初始培训和重新评估疲劳可能导致组织漂移。研究结果还为社区监督中持续进行风险重新评估的实践提供了进一步的支持，并表明 Lloyd 等人提出的方法。