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Carbon reduction potential and costs through circular bioeconomy in the Brazilian steel industry
Resources, Conservation and Recycling ( IF 13.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105517
Jhonathan Fernandes Torres de Souza , Sérgio A. Pacca

Although steel recycling is a credited circular economy strategy, domestic scrap stock may be a limitation to curb steelmaking carbon emissions. In Brazil, charcoal production can be a complementary climate change mitigation alternative to recycling. This study has assessed CO2 abatement potentials and costs in a low-carbon (LC) scenario for the Brazilian steel industry based on two circular bioeconomy-based options. For this purpose, Brazilian steel production was forecasted up to 2050 through an econometric model. The technical amount of scrap and the economic feasibility of charcoal have been estimated to determine the penetration of LC strategies. In addition, an uncertainty analysis was conducted using the Monte Carlo method. For the median value in the simulation, we found that crude steel production will emit 64 MtCO2 in 2050. A recycling share of 36% of the total steel production could reduce these emissions by 20%, and 86% of the remaining blast furnace production could be based on charcoal, improving the total abatement by 65%. The weighted average cost of the LC scenario is -$1/tCO2 for the median value in the simulation, but positive values have been found in 45% of the simulations. Charcoal presents higher abatement costs but less uncertainty than recycling. Such strategies can significantly reduce Brazilian steelmaking emissions, postponing other emerging or more expensive alternatives. Nevertheless, economic policies are needed due to additional costs of charcoal, in conjunction with law enforcement to ensure sustainable charcoal production, and regulations are needed to improve logistics and scrap market disparities.



中文翻译:

通过巴西钢铁行业的循环生物经济降低碳的潜力和成本

尽管钢铁回收是循环经济战略,但国内废钢库存可能成为限制炼钢碳排放的限制。在巴西,木炭生产可以作为替代循环利用的补充性减缓气候变化替代品。这项研究评估了CO 2基于两种基于循环经济的方案,巴西钢铁行业在低碳(LC)情景中的减排潜力和成本。为此,通过计量经济模型可以预测到2050年巴西的钢铁产量。据估算,废料的技术含量和木炭的经济可行性决定了液相色谱策略的普及程度。另外,使用蒙特卡洛方法进行了不确定性分析。对于模拟中的中位数,我们发现粗钢产量将排放64 MtCO 2到2050年,可再生能源占钢铁总产量的36%可以减少20%的排放,而其余高炉生产的86%可以使用木炭,将总减排量提高65%。信用证方案的加权平均成本为-$ 1 / tCO 2模拟中的中值,但在45%的模拟中发现了正值。与再循环相比,木炭的减排成本更高,但不确定性更低。这样的策略可以显着减少巴西炼钢的排放,推迟其他新兴的或更昂贵的替代方案。然而,由于木炭的额外成本,需要经济政策,并与执法相结合以确保可持续的木炭生产,还需要制定法规来改善物流和废料市场差异。

更新日期:2021-02-26
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